Dagaalka mugdiga ah ee ku xeeran warshadaha semiconductor ayaa socday ilaa sanadkan.Dhamaadkii Nofembar, wadamada Midowga Yurub waxay isku raaceen inay qoondeeyaan in ka badan 40 bilyan oo Yuuro si kor loogu qaado awoodda wax-soo-saarka semiconductor ee Midowga Yurub.Qorshaha Midowga Yurub ayaa ah in la kordhiyo saamiga wax-soo-saarka chip-ka adduunka oo laga dhigo 10% ilaa 20% marka la gaaro 2030ka.
Wax shil ah ma jiro, mar xukumaya berrinkii semiconductor isku-dhafan ee Japan sidoo kale kuma dhicin inay cidlo ahaadaan, dhowr maalmood ka hor, Toyota, Denso, Sony, Nippon Telegraph iyo Telephone Corporation (NTT), Japan Electric (NEC), Softbank, Armor Man, Mitsubishi UFJ Bank si wadajir ah u qotomiyey shirkadda habka chip Rapidus, qorshaynaysa in la gaaro wax soo saarka ballaaran ee chips ka hooseeya 2 nanometer ee 2027. Sida ugu horeysay ee ugu weyn ee chip semiconductor isku dhafan circuit, Maraykanka ee chip technology gacanta dhibic sare waa ka badan oo aan naxariis lahayn, saxiixay in August sanadkan si loo hirgeliyo "Sharciga Chip iyo Sayniska", waxay noqon doontaa kabid weyn oo ku saabsan samaynta caalamiga ah ee-dhamaadka sare isku dhafan semiconductor chip warshadaha silsilad siphon saamayn, hadda, Samsung, TSMC ayaa doortay in la dhiso warshadaha ee Maraykanka. , badiyaa la beegsanayo tignoolajiyada chip ee ka hooseeya 5 nanometer.
Tartanka caalamiga ah ee Chip ayaa mar kale kiciyay hirarka, Shiinuhu ma noqon karo kaliya daawadayaal.Xaqiiqdu waxay tahay, dhinaca kale, warshadaha semiconductor ee Shiinaha waxaa si weyn u xakameynaya tartamayaasha, laakiin sidoo kale waxay sii muujinayaan muhiimada ay leedahay xakamaynta madaxbannaan ee silsiladda sahayda semiconductor.Tiro ka mid ah shirkadaha dallaalka xoogga leh ayaa sheegay inay rajo weyn ka qabaan rajada horumarinta ee beddelka semiconductor maxalliga ah dhowrka sano ee soo socda, iyagoo soo jeedinaya in maalgashadayaasha ay diiradda saaraan meelaha muhiimka ah sida qalabka, agabka iyo baakadaha iyo tijaabinta jidka meelaynta.
Qalabka kor u kaca: habka deegaanaynta ayaa dedejiya
Horumarinta degdega ah ee warshadaha semiconductor gudaha iyo dual drive ee siyaasadaha qaranka, saarayaasha qalabka semiconductor gudaha hal dhinac, sii wadaan in ay ballaariyaan qaybaha wax soo saarka, iyo si tartiib tartiib ah jebin monoboli ee saarayaasha shisheeye;dhanka kale, si joogto ah u wanaaji waxqabadka badeecada, oo si tartiib tartiib ah u gal suuqa-dhamaadka sare.Inkasta oo qalabka semiconductor-ka si loo dardargeliyo habka deegaanaynta, laakiin beddelka gurigu uu weli ku jiro marxaladda hore, ayaa la filayaa inuu ka gudbo wareegga warshadaha.
Falanqeeyaha Securities Pacific Liu Guoqing ayaa tilmaamay in, marka loo eego nooca qalabka, in kasta oo qalabka kala-soocidda uu asal ahaan gaaray deegaan ahaan, laakiin CMP, PVD, etching, daaweynta kulaylka iyo qaybaha kale ee heerka deegaan-goynta ayaa weli hooseeya, halka sawir-qaadista. , daahan qalabka horumarinta marxaladdan kaliya si loo gaaro horumar ka 0 si ay u 1. Sidaa darteed, guud ahaan, heerka degaanku weli waxay leedahay meel dheeraad ah oo lagu hagaajinayo, gaar ahaan Maraykanka iyada oo loo marayo "Sharciga Chip iyo Sayniska" iyo siyaasadda gudaha heerka kor loogu qaado maalgashiga garoonka semiconductor, waxaan aaminsanahay in mawduuca "ballaadhinta hoose + beddelka gudaha", soosaarayaasha qalabka guryaha ayaa la filayaa inay kor u qaadaan.
Marka loo eego aasaaska aasaasiga ah ee qalabka semiconductor-ka gudaha ee liiska shirkadaha, waxqabadka saddexda rubuc ee ugu horreeya warshadaha qalabka semiconductor 2022 wuxuu bilaabay inuu dardargeliyo kobaca, kobaca dakhliga guud ee warshadaha ee 65% sanadka-sannadka;Intaa waxaa dheer, faa'iidada warshadaha ayaa sidoo kale sii wanaajineysa.Saddexda meelood ee ugu horreeya ee warshadaha qalabka semiconductor celceliska faa'iidada saafiga ah ee laga jarayo ee 19.0%, 2017 ilaa hadda isbeddelka sanad-sannad-ka ee kor u kaca ayaa ah mid muhiim ah;Isla mar ahaantaana, qalabka semiconductor-ka gudaha ee liiska shirkadaha waxay amar ku bixiyaan guud ahaan kobaca sare.
Beddelka soo dejinta ee qalabka semiconductor waa mawduuca ugu muhiimsan.Yang Shaohui, oo ah falanqeeye ka tirsan Everbright Securities, wuxuu ku talinayaa maalgashadayaasha inay fiiro gaar ah u yeeshaan soosaarayaasha qalabka semiconductor SMIC, Shengmei Shanghai, North Huachuang, Core Source Micro, Tuojing Technology, Huahai Qingke, Wanye Enterprise, Electarooniga Qiyaasta Saxda ah, Tianjun Technology, Huaxing Yuanchuang, Crydom , Delonghi Laser, iyo Technology Lightforce.
Qalabka dhexe: gelitaanka xilliga horumarka dahabiga ah
Qalabka semiconductor, in kasta oo biilka US chip uu xoojiyey xannibaadaha ku saabsan aagagga geeddi-socodka horumarsan ee Shiinaha, laakiin Shiinaha ayaa horumar la taaban karo ka sameeyay qaybta qalabka semiconductor-ka ee habka qaan-gaarka ah, shirkadaha qalabka semiconductor-ka ayaa la filayaa inay sameeyaan jawaab celin togan ka dib markii ay helaan joogto ah amarada, ku tiirsanaanta soo galitaanka raasamaal waara si kor loogu qaado ballaarinta agabka semiconductor ee jira awoodda wax soo saarka iyo jiilka cusub ee qalabka semiconductor horumarinta Product.
Falanqeeyaha Securities Guangda Zhao Naidi ayaa tilmaamay in isbeddelka caalamiga ah, soo bandhigida biilasha ama siyaasadaha Mareykanka aysan wax ku kordhineynin horumarinta caalamiga ah, laakiin taa beddelkeeda waxay dardargelineysaa horumarinta kala qaybsanaanta warshadaha la xiriira.Waxaan sidoo kale u baahanahay inaan dardargelino si aan u buuxino farqiga u dhexeeya Shiinaha ee meelaha muhiimka ah iyo heerka horumarsan ee caalamiga ah.
Waqtigan xaadirka ah, heerka meelaynta agabka wax-soo-saarka semiconductor-ka gudaha ayaa ah ilaa 10%, inta badan waxay ku xidhan tahay soo dejinta.Waqtigan xaadirka ah, Shiinuhu wuxuu sidoo kale sameynayaa dadaallo weyn si uu u taageero meelaynta warshadaha qoorta kaadhka, iyo soosaarayaashayada wax soo saarka semiconductor waxay dardar galiyeen horumarka meelaynta.Dhinaca wareegyada isku dhafan, dardargelinta beddelka maxalliga ah, cusboonaysiinta tignoolajiyada warshadaha iyo taageerada siyaasadda warshadaha qaranka iyo taageero kale oo badan oo wanaagsan, shirkadaha qalabka semiconductor-ka gudaha ayaa la filayaa inay keenaan xilli horumarineed oo dahab ah, silsiladda warshadaha ee shirkadaha tayada sare leh waa la filayo in ay hormuud ka noqdaan ka faa'iidaysiga.
Marxaladaha wafer-ka ee dhawaan la dhisay ayaa noqon doona goobta dagaalka ugu weyn ee agabka semiconductor-ka deegaanka si loo kordhiyo qaybtooda.Hu Yang oo ah falanqeeye dammaanad ayaa tilmaamay in wakhtiga wax soo saarka cusub ee cusub ee hadda socda uu bilaabmay 2022-2024, isaga oo xukumaya in muddada daaqada dahabiga ah ay sii socon doonto 2-3 sano, taas oo ah wakhtiga ugu fiican ee ganacsiyada si ay u bedelaan agabka semiconductor ee gudaha. .Waxaa lagu talinayaa in maalgashadayaasha ay diiradda saaraan Qalabka Korontada ee Jingrui, Qalabka Cusub ee Awooda leh, Nanda Optoelectronics, Teknolojiyadda Jacques, Jianghua Micro, Juhua, Haohua Technology, Huatech Gas, Shanghai Xinyang, iwm.
Baakadaha hoose iyo tijaabinta: saamiga suuqa ayaa sii kordheysa
Baakadaha IC iyo tijaabinta waxay ku yaalaan dhinaca hoose ee silsiladda warshadaha, taas oo loo qaybin karo laba qaybood: baakad iyo tijaabin.Iyada oo la raacayo isbeddelka horumarinta takhasuska iyo qaybinta shaqada ee warshadaha IC, baakado badan oo IC ah iyo amarada tijaabinta ayaa ka soo bixi doona soosaarayaasha IDM ee dhaqameed, taas oo u wanaagsan baakadaha hoose iyo shirkadaha tijaabinta.
Qaar ka mid ah ilaha warshadaha ayaa tilmaamaya in sannadihii la soo dhaafay, soo-saareyaasha waddanku ay si degdeg ah u ururinayeen teknoolojiyadda baakadaha horumarsan iyada oo loo marayo isku-dhafka iyo iibsashada, iyo madal tignoolajiyada ayaa asal ahaan la mid ah soo-saareyaasha dibadda, iyo saamiga baakadaha horumarsan ee Shiinaha ee adduunka ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah u kordhaya.Marka la eego asalka siyaasadaha gudaha ee si firfircoon u taageeraya baakadaha horumarsan, xawliga horumarinta baakadaha horumarsan ee gudaha ayaa la filayaa in uu sii dardargeliyo mustaqbalka.Isla mar ahaantaana, iyada oo la raacayo asalka khilaafka ganacsiga ee u dhexeeya Shiinaha iyo Maraykanka, baahida loo qabo beddelka gudaha waa mid xooggan, saamiga hoggaamiyeyaasha baakadaha gudaha ayaa kordhin doona, iyo soosaarayaasha baakadaha gudaha ayaa weli leh faa'iido weyn.
Iyada oo la horumarinayo wareejinta warshadaha semiconductor, faa'iidada qiimaha kheyraadka aadanaha iyo doorbidida canshuurta, awoodda baakadaha caalamiga ah ee IC ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah ugu wareegaysa gobolka Aasiya Baasifigga iyo warshaduhu waxay ilaalinayaan kobac joogto ah.Marka loo eego xogta hay'adaha la xiriira, heerka kobaca isku dhafka ah ee suuqa baakadaha IC ee Shiinaha ayaa aad uga sarreeya kan caalamiga ah in ka badan 10 sano;Saamaynta faafitaanka, silsilado badan oo sahayda ah ee semiconductors caalami ah ayaa sii wada inay adkaadaan ama la gooyo inta lagu jiro cudurka faafa, sahayduna waxay sii wadaa inay sii adkaato ama la gooyo inta lagu jiro cudurka faafa, iyadoo la raacayo baahida xooggan ee gawaarida tamarta cusub ee hoose, AioT iyo AR / VR iwm, aasaasayaal badan oo semiconductor ah ayaa leh ka faa'iidaysi karti sare leh.Iyada oo ku saleysan ka faa'iidaysiga awoodda xooggan iyo rajada baahida sare ee joogtada ah ee macnaha guud ee cudurka faafa, kharashyada raasumaalka wax-soo-saarka semiconductor-ka caalamiga ah ayaa la filayaa inuu sii ahaado mid xooggan iyo soosaarayaasha baakadaha hoose ayaa la filayaa inay si buuxda uga faa'iideystaan.
Falanqeeyaha Securities Dongguan Liu Menglin ayaa tilmaamay in Shiinuhu uu leeyahay tartan adag oo gudaha ah oo ku saabsan baakadaha iyo tijaabinta, wuxuuna ku rajo weyn yahay horumarinta faa'iidada ay keentay horumarinta joogtada ah ee baakadaha horumarsan ee warshadaha hoos yimaada kobaca sare ee mustaqbalka fog.Waxaa lagu talinayaa in aad fiiro gaar ah u teknoolajiyada Changdian, Huatian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, Jingfang Technology iyo shirkadaha kale ee la xiriira.
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Waqtiga boostada: Dec-17-2022